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The DIStributed Power Economic Rationale SElection (DISPERSE) model estimates the market potential for Distributed Generation (DG) in a specific geographic region. DISPERSE has been developed and enhanced over five years, and has been used for numerous projects for utilities, equipment manufacturers, government agencies, and research organizations.

The number of potential new DG applications by geographic region, SIC code, DG technology type, operation mode, and size is estimated, providing key information on what future markets for DG technologies will look like. Since the model performs a "bottom-up" analysis, results can be aggregrated in many different ways.

The figure on the left provides an overview of the model. A model run begins with a database of industrial and commercial sites, with information on location, facility type, and size. The model assigns electric and thermal load profiles specific to the application and region, and the size of facility is used to "scale" the load profile.

Combining this information with DG unit price and performance data, the model performs a life-cycle cost economic analysis, based on the unit life, the cost and performance data, and fuel prices. Baseload electric, cogeneration, and peak shaving operation modes are compared with competing energy prices. The best DG technology option is selected based on the lowest DG competing electricity price.

The model then compares the annual cost to generate with costs of purchasing from the grid, and adds the application to the potential market if it beats the grid price. This process is repeated tens of thousands of times, and the results are then aggregated to obtain market potential. Sensitivity analysis on important variables can be conducted.

Paul Sheaffer

Director of Technology Analysis and Deployment

(703) 356-1300 ext. 215 or sheaffer@rdcnet.com